Sept 10 (Reuters) – El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the weather forecaster added.
• El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs naturally, when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to build up in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
• This typically leads to higher global temperatures and altered weather patterns, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall to others.
• “The current El Nino is strong and will continue to strengthen over the coming months and has to be the strongest El Nino on record,” said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather.
• El Niño-driven drought has devastated corn and bean crops across Central America’s Dry Corridor, pushing tens of thousands of rural households deeper into food and water insecurity, Oxfam said.
• “We are currently seeing drier conditions across Central America, and that should continue for the next few months while we are in the El Nino influence,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather in Finland.
• El Niño concerns added to weather-driven supply fears in global food markets, contributing to a rise in prices for staples including sugar and vegetable oils, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.
• “We do expect some additional warming over the next month or so before a slow decline later this winter and spring. This should equate to increased rain later this fall and over the winter across the central and southern Plains, Delta, and Southeast, and should result in a better year for winter wheat production in the central and southern Plains,” added Keeney.
(Reporting by Dharna Bafna and Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter)
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