The demand for higher education is expected to decline due to a broader demographic shift, as well as shifts in preferences around the need for a college education. The percentage of American teenagers who enroll in college after high school dropped from 70 percent in 2016 to 62 percent in 2022, and in general, the number of students who graduate high school is expected to decline through the 2040s. It’s not going to be a huge problem at the top — looking at the 60 or so schools that accept 20 percent or less of their applicants, applications are up from 800,000 two years ago to 2.35 million today — but for many of the other 4,000 or so colleges in the United States, we’re averaging about 60 closures a year.
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