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This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024/25. For 2024/25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose.
Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/24. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection.
Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16.0 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected lower based on observed use during 2024/25. Corn used for ethanol for 2025/26 is raised 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion.
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, down 2 million bushels to 1,927 million on smaller harvested area only partly offset by a higher yield. The all wheat yield is raised 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.7. Production forecasts are decreased for Hard Red Spring and White, but increased for Hard Red Winter, Durum, and Soft Red Winter.
The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and exports in the prior marketing year. Soybean production for 2025/26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month.
With lower supply and the slow pace of soybean export sales to date, exports are reduced 40 million bushels.
NASS interviewed approximately 14,900 producers across the country in preparation for this report. NASS is now gearing up to conduct its September Agricultural Survey, which will collect final acreage, yield, and production information for wheat, barley, oats, and rye as well as grains and oilseeds stored on farms across the nation. That survey will take place during the first two weeks of September.
USDA
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