This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November. These data imply corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. Corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. Imports are raised 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for Hard Red Spring. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports are increased 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets. Exports for Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Spring are both raised 5 million bushels. Projected wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, still up 14 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is forecast at 131.2 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. Soybean oil production is raised from last month on a higher extraction rate. With higher soybean oil supplies and strong export commitments to date, exports are raised 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. Food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil is reduced 200 million pounds, leaving soybean oil ending stocks down slightly and similar to the 2023/24 marketing year.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, down $0.60 from last month. The soybean meal price forecast is reduced $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2024/25 is raised this month mainly on higher soybean production partly offset by lower rapeseed. Soybean production is raised 1.7 million tons to 427.1 million on higher area for Argentina and Bolivia and higher yields for Canada. Canola production is reduced 1.1 million tons mainly on a lower yield for Canada based on the latest Statistics Canada report. Global sunflowerseed production is nearly unchanged, with higher production for Ukraine and Russia mostly offset by a lower crop for the European Union.
USDA Office of Communications
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