WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced
domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Imports are lowered 10 million
bushels to 100 million on a slower than expected pace for Durum and Hard Red Spring.
Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 110 million on lower implied feed and
residual use in the second quarter, based on December 1 stocks reported in today’s NASS
Grain Stocks report. Seed use is unchanged at 66 million bushels, reflecting the latest
estimated seed use for winter wheat plantings in the fall of 2021 reported in today’s NASS
Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 825
million bushels with all the reduction in Hard Red Winter. U.S. wheat sales and shipments
continue to be sluggish as U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive in several markets. Projected
2021/22 ending stocks are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million but still down 26 percent
from last year and the lowest level since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised
$0.10 per bushel to $7.15 based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for
prices in the remainder of the marketing year.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for higher production, greater
food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower exports, and larger ending stocks. Corn
production is estimated at 15.115 billion bushels, up 53 million on a 0.3-million acre increase
in harvested area. Total corn use is virtually unchanged at 14.835 billion. Exports are
lowered 75 million bushels to 2.425 billion, reflecting expectations of increased competition
from other exporters.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2021/22 is estimated at 130.6 million tons, up 0.3
million from last month. Larger soybean, canola, sunflowerseed, and peanut crops are partly
offset with lower cottonseed production. Soybean production is estimated at 4.44 billion
bushels, up 10 million with gains for Iowa and Indiana. Harvested area is estimated at 86.3
million acres, down slightly from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 51.4 bushels per
acre, up 0.2 bushels. Soybean supplies are raised 11 million bushels on higher production
and slightly higher beginning stocks. With crush and export forecasts unchanged, ending
stocks are projected at 350 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.60 per bushel, up 50
cents, reflecting tighter global soybean stocks and lower production forecasts for Brazil,
Argentina, and Paraguay. The soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short ton, up 45
dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound.
USDA
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