FARGO, N.D. (KFGO) – An economic outlook released by North Dakota State University presents a grim outlook for North Dakota’s economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The special report done by Jeremy Jackson, director of the Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise at NDSU uses a forecasting model that indicates total wages and salaries are likely to decline significantly, by 20 to 60%, even with the best case scenario of $40 Texas light sweet crude, a benchmark in oil pricing. the labor force will fall by between 7.5 and 15 percent, the unemployment rate could increase by as much as 20%. The gross state product could fall as little as 5 percent or drop by more than 50 percent. The model predicts North Dakota’s total tax collections may decrease by more than 50 percent.
Jackson notes in the report that much is uncertain about what will happen as the pandemic clears and businesses begin to operate again and a wide range of outcomes is possible. Economic conditions could be much better than the forecast suggests, but could also be much worse.
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