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***Winter Storm Warning (Pink) Around Midnight Tonight Into Friday Morning … Winter Storm Watch Late Tonight / Tomorrow Through Saturday Afternoon … Weather Advisory (Purple) through early Friday Morning***
Still a 2 part storm and this discussion with snow expectations will ONLY deal with part one …. Now through early friday morning …
Snow and / or rain spreads through western and central ND and SD today through friday morning … the conversion to snow occurs earlier out west …. and in the western Dakotas it will likely just start as snow with the rain/ snow line reaching perhaps as far east as a Cavalier to Valley City to Ellendale line late tonight …. That line will SLOWLY edge eastward tomorrow situating itself from somewhere in the northern Valley to near Lisbon to around Britton, SD during the afternoon or early evening and perhaps reach the southern valley later tomorrow night or early friday morning …
With this in mind … here is my outlook for PART ONE (Later tonight through tomorrow night):
I Don’t Expect Much Snow In The Valley Proper (Including F-M Area) And Nothing In Minnesota .. But Just to west of Valley Snow Will Accumulate Especially Late Tonight Through Tomorrow Night … POTENTIAL of 6″ or more Along And West Of A Line Roughly Running From Near Cavalier to Larimore to Valley City to Ellendale …
Keep in mind that THIS CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE!!!
PART TWO (Associated with Upper Level Low) commences friday morning and runs through saturday … This is where more uncertainty arises … the most favorable area for ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT accumulation appears to be headed to areas that will get clobbered by part one with much of the valley, northeastern SD and Lakes country and northern MN perhaps missing out on most of it … the key word is “perhaps” at this point … If this scenario verifies some areas in central, northern and east central ND (to JUST west of the valley) could accumulate OVER A FOOT of total snow (parts one & two) whereas little, if any, may occur in the southern valley , northeastern ND and western through north central MN …
Areas that get missed by part one but get hit by part two may experience a few inches of snow but nothing is certain yet …
So, in essence we have a setup where (across the listening area) that anywhere from a trace to over a foot of snow may accumulate!
WORDS OF CAUTION:
ANY adjustment in presently known storm track, speed, etc WILL RESULT in dramatic changes in snowfall over a given area. There will legitimately be situations where over less than 20 miles you can go fro m areas of little, if any snow, to over a foot! VERY important to pay attention to upcoming forecast updates …
West bound travelers should be OK through today but any plans beginning tomorrow night through the weekend should be cancelled since travel will be very difficult if not impossible.
NOTHING IS ETCHED IN STONE yet but the general takeaway FOR NOW is that the heavy snow should miss just to the west of the valley
