GRAND FORKS, N.D. (KFGO) – Significant spring rain and the pace of the snow-melt will play a factor in potential spring flooding in the Red River Valley.
The National Weather Service in Grand Forks, in its updated flood outlook report, said moderate to major flooding is possible in some parts of the Red River Basin.
“This is primarily due to the additional precipitation we’ve received the last couple of weeks and our delayed melt conditions as we’re still not melting yet, moving into the last week of March,” Weather Service hydrologist Amanda Lee said. “Most places are seeing chances above long-term historical averages for the basin. The biggest areas to be concerned about at this time, look to be the mainstem and those southeast North Dakota tributaries.”
The river in Fargo-Moorhead has about a 90 percent chance of reaching a little over 30.5 feet, but only a 5 percent chance of hitting 38.5 feet. There is a 50 percent chance that the Red will go just over 34 feet in Fargo. That is a manageable level due to home buyouts and added flood protection over the past decade.
“The continuation of our below-normal temperatures is bringing us to a delayed melt,” Lee said. “How things melt, along with additional precipitation we get, are going to continue to be the biggest factors on what kind of flood we end up seeing.”
In 1997, the Red River in Fargo rose to 39.72 feet. The modern day record was in 2009, when the river went to 40.84 feet.
Fargo Public Works Director Ben Dow said city leaders will meet to discuss the flood outlook and what preparations are necessary.
The Red in Wahpeton has a 95 percent chance of reaching minor flood stage (11.9 feet), 50 percent chance of rising to 14.3 feet, which is considered moderate flooding, and a 25 percent chance of reaching major flood stage (15.3 feet). There is a 5 percent chance the Red in Wahpeton could hit 16.8 feet.
In Grand Forks, there is a 95 percent chance that the Red River could reach moderate flooding of 41 feet, a 50 percent chance it could hit 44.4 feet, and a 25 percent chance that the river could reach 46.5 feet, which is considered a major flood there. There is a 5 percent chance Grand Forks could see the Red River rise to 50 feet.
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