WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $9.00 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of 2022/23. Despite the decline, $9.00 per bushel would remain a record SAFP.
The 2022/23 global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month. Supplies increase by 3.6 million tons to 1,059.6 million, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Production in Russia is forecast 3.0 million tons higher, to 91.0 million, on harvest results for winter wheat to date published by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. If realized, area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs.
Ukraine production forecast is increased 1.0 million tons to 20.5 million as the harvest is nearly complete and government statistics reported higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones.
CORN: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, smaller feed and residual use, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and tighter ending stocks.
Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 5 million bushels lower based on essentially offsetting export and corn used for ethanol changes for 2021/22.
Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down 415 million from last month on reductions to harvested area and yield. The national average yield is forecast at 172.5 bushels per acre, down 2.9 bushels.
Harvested area for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 1.0 million.
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export forecast for 2021/22. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 152 million with lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecast. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels per acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month.
USDA News Release
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