LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. investment bank JPMorgan expects the S&P500 index <.SPX> to surge to 3,900 points if U.S. President Donald Trump is re-elected in next week’s election, calling such an outcome the most favourable for stock markets.
A rise to 3,900 would mark a 12.6% jump from Friday’s closing level.
A clean sweep by Democrats would be “mostly neutral” for markets, JPM said in a note received on Monday, adding:
“We see an ‘orderly’ Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities.”
The odds of a “blue wave” have narrowed slightly since mid-October. Former vice president Joe Biden has a substantial lead in national opinion polls, although the contest is closer in battleground states likely to decide the race.
JPMorgan said several of its data gatherings, such as voter registration, Twitter sentiment, point to a “tightening race”.
(This story corrects to remove typo in para one)
(Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan; editing by Sujata Rao)
