In 1987, a smoker had a 3.4 percent chance of dying within five years, and as of 2023, a smoker had a 4.9 percent chance of dying within five years. This seemingly paradoxical result, demonstrated by data from the 1987 to 2013 waves of the National Health Interview Survey, presented not because it’s any more dangerous to be a smoker now than it was before — the age-specific mortality rates are generally the same over the decades studied — but rather because the smoking population is getting older as young people don’t pursue the habit at the rate they once did. As a result, you get data showing a public health statistic getting worse (the overall mortality of smokers) thanks to broader data showing a public health statistic getting better (fewer younger, healthier people deciding to smoke).
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