A new study published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences proposed a new maximum for how long ahead a forecaster could theoretically predict the weather. As it stands, we can get a solid forecast about 14 days out, which itself is already a radical achievement where humankind has conspired to glimpse ahead in destiny’s ineffable ledger through an interconnected system of monitoring attached to an equally impressive computational milestone in supercomputing. Present work aside, the new research contends that the theoretical maximum for a forecast is 129 ± 7 days, though even under ideal conditions, a five-day forecast probably tops out at around 62 days. After that, prediction becomes literally impossible, as at that point, even if you do have a perfect understanding of the initial state of the atmosphere, the quantum uncertainty of the phase of the Sun’s photons entering the atmosphere will actually begin to overwhelm the modeling.
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