MOSCOW, April 14 (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its forecast for Russia’s economic growth this year to 1.1%, from 0.8% previously, due to higher oil and other commodity prices as a result of the Middle East crisis.
The Russian economy slowed sharply in 2025 to around 1% growth, down from 4.9% in 2024, due to the central bank’s tight monetary policy and Western sanctions. The economy is also under strain from spending on the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s fortunes changed after prices for oil, its main export commodity, spiked when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global oil trade, in response to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that began on February 28.
“In Russia, higher commodity prices are projected to drive the 0.3 percentage point upward revision of 2026 growth relative to January, to 1.1%, with the momentum continuing to register another 1.1% growth rate in 2027,” the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.
The Russian government, which has yet to receive some of the windfall for the budget through commodity-related taxes, said it may downgrade its growth forecast, currently at 1.3%, during a review this month.
Analysts polled by Reuters last month forecast economic growth of 0.8% this year. Russia’s GDP fell by 1.5% year on year in February and by 2.1% in January.
(Reporting by Gleb BryanskiEditing by Alexandra Hudson)
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