BUENOS AIRES, March 10 (Reuters) – Argentina’s monthly inflation rate probably eased in February thanks to a seasonal moderation in some food and services prices, a Reuters poll found.
But the yearly trend likely persisted at relatively high levels, dampening President Javier Milei’s aspiration of scoring a definitive victory against the country’s unruly inflation at the start of 2026.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely rose 2.7% in February, according to the median estimate of 20 economists polled March 4-9.
This would mark a slowdown from 2.9% in January, when higher costs of vegetables, fruit and tourism-related services added to other hot categories like meat and public utilities.
It would be the first monthly deceleration since June, driven by a moderation in the same segments that had risen much during the Southern Hemisphere summer vacation period.
Still, official CPI data scheduled for release on Thursday are expected to show a 32.7% year-on-year increase, surpassing January’s 32.4%.
“The good thing is while inflation has accelerated a little in recent months, it’s not very strong; it’s a gradual increase,” said Martin Polo, senior economist at Cohen Aliados Financieros.
“The downside is the government can’t slow it further even after having implemented monetary adjustment and left the exchange rate stable. So perhaps monetary policy isn’t being effective enough to bring inflation down and converge to zero percent, which is bad because wages aren’t rising.”
In a television interview this week, Milei reiterated a promise to reduce inflation to zero, setting a deadline for August. Inflation exceeded 200% when he took office at the end of 2023.
The decline in the trajectory of consumer prices was interrupted last year amid a surge in market worries Milei’s allies and the opposition blamed on each other’s campaigns in the run-up to a mid-term legislative vote.
A monthly central bank poll published last week showed analysts still expected slower inflation, though their year-end consensus forecast for 2026 rose from January’s survey.
February views were compiled just before the outbreak of the Israel-U.S. war on Iran and its impact on global energy markets this month that has led to steeper gasoline prices.
(Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin and Hernan Nessi; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )
Comments