BISMARCK, N.D. (North Dakota Monitor) – North Dakota lawmakers building the state budget will work with a more conservative revenue forecast, driven by a projected drop in oil prices and uncertainty about tariffs.
A revised forecast presented Thursday projects general fund revenues of about $5.07 billion for 2025-27, a drop of $105.2 million from a January forecast. But even with slower growth that’s predicted, North Dakota is still expected to see revenues about 1.4% higher than the current budget cycle.
Economic consultants who presented to the Senate and House appropriations committees also cautioned about uncertainty with President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
North Dakota lawmakers use the March budget forecast to inform their budget decisions. Gov. Kelly Armstrong said the forecast still supports state investments in property tax reductions and other priorities.
“This is a conservative forecast, and it needs to be, as North Dakota is a commodity-based economy and we must budget responsibly for the next two years,” Armstrong said in a statement. “But this is not gloom and doom. Sales tax and individual income tax collections are forecast to increase, and oil production is expected to remain strong.”
Joe Morrissette, director of the Office of Management and Budget, said the budget forecast reflects a significant decrease in oil prices. The budget assumes a North Dakota oil price of $59 per barrel in fiscal year 2026 and $57 per barrel in 2027.
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