The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. WHEAT is for lower supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and smaller ending stocks.
Supplies are reduced on lower production, down 26 million bushels to 1,982 million, as reduced harvested area was only partly offset by a higher average yield. Harvested area is lowered 0.9 million acres to 37.9 million and the all wheat yield is raised 0.4 bushels per acre to 52.2.
By class, production of Hard Red Spring, Durum, and Soft Red Winter wheat decreased, while production of Hard Red Winter and White increased. Domestic use was raised 2 million bushels, all on higher food use, based primarily on the NASS Flour Millings Products report issued August 1. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are reduced 28 million bushels to 828 million.
The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and slightly lower ending stocks. EU production is reduced 2.0 million tons to 128.0 million, which would be the lowest since 2020/21; several months of heavy rainfall in France have reduced quality and yield prospects for EU’s largest wheat producer.
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. CORN outlook is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports, and smaller ending stocks.
Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 10 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2023/24. For 2023/24, higher corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch. Corn production for 2024/25 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from last month as a 0.7-million-acre decline in harvested area is more than offset by an increase in yield.
The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 183.1 bushels per acre, is 2.1 bushels higher than last month’s projection. Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that yields are forecast above a year ago in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.20 per bushel.
The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. SOYBEANS includes higher production, exports, and ending stocks.
Soybean production for 2024/25 is forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, up 154 million on higher area and yield. Harvested area is forecast at 86.3 million acres, up 1.0 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast is 53.2 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month.
Soybean supplies for 2024/25 are projected at 4.9 billion bushels, up 11 percent from last year. With soybean exports up 25 million bushels on higher supplies and crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 560 million bushels, up 125 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast at $10.80 per bushel, down $0.30 from last month.
USDA August WASDE Report
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