BISMARCK, N.D. (North Dakota News Cooperative) – U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong has overwhelming support in his bid for North Dakota governor in the June 11 primary, but the U.S. House race in North Dakota is too close to call, according to a new statewide poll released today by the North Dakota News Cooperative (NDNC).
“I do not expect the governor’s race to be an issue for Armstrong, as something wild would have to happen in the next couple of weeks for him to lose,” said Dr. Trevor Smith, chief research officer with WPA Intelligence, the Washington D.C.-based firm that conducted the poll for NDNC.
The U.S. House race isn’t so clear cut with North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak capturing 32% of poll participants’ support, giving her a 7-point lead over former State Rep. Rick Becker of Bismarck. Becker was favored by 25% of those polled. However, with 28% saying they were undecided, the Republican primary for the U.S. House seat is up for grabs.
The following are additional highlights from the survey of 500 eligible North Dakota voters who say they are likely to vote in the Republican primary. The poll was conducted May 20-22, 2024, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.
North Dakota Governor’s Race
Armstrong leads Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller, with 57% of the 500 people polled saying they would vote for the congressman. Miller had the support of 19%, while 24% say they are still undecided on who they will vote for in the primary. However, even if Miller could secure the undecided vote, it would not be enough to make up Armstrong’s 38-point lead.
Armstrong received large support from people who identified as strong Republicans, garnering 66% to Miller’s 16%. He led very conservative voters and moderates with more than 50% of the vote in those categories. Armstrong led by 10 points among those who identified as independents with 38%.
Armstrong, from Dickinson, saw a wider margin of support in western North Dakota over the east, posting a 43-point and 31-point lead, respectively, over Miller.
The winner will move on to the general election to face Democrat Merrill Piepkorn and independent candidate Michael Coachman.
U.S. House Race
There are five Republican candidates vying for the congressional seat.
North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak garnered 32% of poll participants’ support, giving her a 7-point lead over former State Rep. Rick Becker of Bismarck, who was favored by 25% of those polled. However, with 28% saying they were undecided, the Republican primary for the U.S. House is up for grabs.
Bismarck attorney and former Miss America Cara Mund received 10% in the poll, while Alex Balazs, a military veteran from Cando who won the North Dakota GOP endorsement, got 5%. Sharlet Mohr of Williston received less than a percent in the poll.
The poll also asked participants about party identification – strong Republican, not-so-strong Republican and independent – and ideology – very conservative, moderately conservative and moderate. 36% of those who identified as strong Republicans supported Fedorchak, giving her an 11-point lead over Becker and more than 30 points on Balazs and Mund. However, 34% of those who identified as having a very conservative ideology supported Becker, giving him a 6-point lead over Fedorchak.
Fedorchak had more support among those who identified as somewhat conservative – 36% – and moderate – 37% – while Becker grabbed 24% and 15%, respectively.
Independents showed more support for Becker than strong Republicans. Becker got 32% of independents versus Fedorchak’s 23%.
Mund also did better among independents (17%) and moderates (22%). Balazs was in the single digits for strong Republicans, independents, very conservative votes and moderates.
In terms of geography, Becker did edge Fedorchak with voters in western North Dakota for the House race, but barely. He received 28% support from voters in the Bismarck, Minot and Dickinson areas to Fedorchack’s 26%. Meanwhile, Fedorchak had 39% of voters on the east side of the state, including Fargo. That was an 18-point lead on Becker.
Fifty more people represented west North Dakota in the poll versus east North Dakota participants.
The U.S. House winner in the Republican primary will face the Democratic candidate in the general election. Trygve Hammer and Roland Riemers are running against each other to win the Democratic vote.
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