
(Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/James Mintert)
Farmer sentiment weakened in June following two months of improvement, as tracked by the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The barometer dropped 12 points to 146 from the previous month. A change in producers’ expectations for the future served as the primary factor in the shift, with the Index of Future Expectations sinking 18 points to 146. The Current Conditions Index, however, lost only 2 points, standing now at 144. A drop in optimism about future agricultural exports seems to have influenced producers’ weakened outlook. Even with the June declines, all three indices persist at higher levels than a year ago. The barometer survey took place between June 9-13.
The four most recent barometer surveys sought to learn more about farmers’ perspectives on the effect of U.S. trade policies on farm income. Each survey included a question that asked what impact they expected from the imposition of tariffs on their farm’s income. The May and June surveys confirmed ongoing producer worries about the tariffs’ impact on farm income. However, the percentage of producers who expect a negative or very negative impact has dropped since March and April.
Most respondents (56%) in March and April said they expected a negative impact from U.S. tariff policy on their farms’ income. That percentage slipped to 45% in May and June. The percentage of respondents indicating that they expected a positive or very positive impact of the tariffs on their farm’s income shifted upward to 27% in May and June from 23% in March and April.
“Overall, we see weakened agricultural producer sentiment coupled with their weakened expectations for the future,” said Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Reduced optimism about the future of U.S. agriculture’s export prospects stands out as a major cause of the shift in sentiment. Although farmers remain concerned that U.S. tariff policies will reduce their income, fewer producers in May and June said they expect a negative or very negative impact on their income than they did in March and April.”
Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer
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