U.S. farmers are expected to produce 1.38 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, according to the Crop Production report released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. USDA also released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Monday.
The 2025/26 U.S. WHEAT outlook is for increased supplies, modestly higher domestic use, reduced exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production.
All wheat production is projected at 1,921 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year on lower harvested acreage. The all wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year.
The first 2025 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1,382 million bushels is up 2 percent from 2024 with Hard Red Winter and White accounting for most of the increase. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is $5.30 per bushel, down $0.20 from last year on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.
The 2025/26 U.S. CORN outlook is for record supplies and total use, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago on increases to both area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres if realized would be the highest in over a decade. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.
U.S. corn exports for 2025/26 are forecast up from a year ago to 2.7 billion bushels, with lower prices driving a forecast increase in world trade. Exports for competitor countries such as Argentina and Ukraine are higher than a year ago. For Brazil, expectations of continued domestic demand growth limit expansion in exports. The United States is projected to be the world’s largest exporter, with fractional decline in global market share.
The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 15 cents.
The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. SOYBEANS shows slightly lower supplies, higher crush, reduced exports, and lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. The soybean crop is projected lower at 4.34 billion bushels with trend yield and lower area. With higher beginning stocks but lower imports and production, soybean supplies are down less than 1 percent from 2024/25.
NOTE from USDA: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.
Source: USDA
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