
FILE - A Kansas City Chiefs fan, Chiefsaholic, poses for photos while walking toward Empower Field at Mile High before an NFL football game between the Denver Broncos and the Chiefs, Jan. 8, 2022, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)
This weekend, the Kansas City Chiefs will play the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. Dogging the Chiefs is a popular theory online that they are disproportionately favored by NFL referees, catching favorable calls and avoiding penalties in what some construe to be game-altering assistance from the referees. A new analysis found that, at least during the regular season, that isn’t actually the case. Over the five postseasons since 2020, the Chiefs have become remarkably talented at accruing win probability through penalties. Over the course of 15 playoff games, the cumulative win probability added from plays with penalties was 45 percentage points, higher than any team in the entire league over the period. This might be less of a pro-Chiefs bias and more “the league in general and referees, in particular, tend to be more protective and defensive of star quarterbacks that have become the face of their operation” bias. Since 2005, the teams with the most net penalty yards in a five-year playoff stretch include in first Tom Brady’s 2013-17 Patriots (+276 net penalty yardage), in second Ben Roethlisberger’s 2005-09 Steelers (+205 yards), and in fifth place, yes, Patrick Mahomes’ 2020-2024 Kansas City Chiefs (+144 yards).
Comments